South Burlington, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

053
FXUS61 KBTV 150535
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet few days in terms of weather are expected today and Saturday
before a cold front moves through the region on Sunday. Scattered to
numerous showers are expected with the frontal passage on Sunday
with drier conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures expected
through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...Sunny, dry, and seasonal are three words
that describe the weather across the North Country today. Dry air
will continue to filter in behind a cold front that moved through
the region on Thursday which will allow for dewpoints in the mid 40s
to lower 50s this afternoon. There are still signs in the high-res
guidance that we could see dew points drop even lower given a
plethora of dry air near the top of the mixed layer which will bear
some watching given we are already forecasting min RH values in the
23-30% range this afternoon. Winds overall will be light from the
north throughout the day but the top of the mixed layer will have
some stronger 10-15 mph winds which could occasionally mix down to
the surface. Some of the high-res guidance shows some cloud cover
developing towards sunset but the general thinking is that this is
over-parameterized moisture at the top of the mixed layer which
seems unlikely given how dry the air mass is that`s currently moving
overhead. Should we see another clear night, we could see some
patchy fog but given we will be several days removed from rainfall,
fog will likely be limited to river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...Strong 850 mb advection is expected through
the first half of Saturday which will help temperature rebound back
into the mid 80s to the lower 90s Saturday afternoon. The highest
reading will likely be in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys
where channeled southerly winds will help advect in the warmer
temperatures. Luckily, dewpoints will remain "comfortable" with
dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s; with some lower to mid
60s possible across southern Vermont. With the upper level ridge
axis beginning to weaken and shift to the east, subsidence will
decrease which should allow for some fair weather cumulus to develop
across the high peaks. A cold front will then approach the region on
Sunday and bring scattered to numerous rain showers with the
potential for a few thunderstorms. While the atmosphere will begin
to moisten late Saturday, there will still be a lot of antecedent
dry air in place Sunday morning which will likely cut into rainfall
totals during the first half of Sunday. This, coupled with
lackluster upper level dynamics will yield limited rainfall totals
with expected totals ranging from a tenth of an inch across southern
Vermont up to three tenths of an inch near the International Border.
We could see some higher amounts in thunderstorms but these higher
amounts will be very localized. While the rain will be most
welcomed, it really won`t be significant enough to help the build
abnormally dry conditions across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday...Sunday night onward will feature a cooling
trend, and a drier airmass in place following departing front which
will become stalled to our south. Expect fairly pleasant conditions
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s/50s. With the front
stalled to our south, there are some indications that a weak wave of
low pressure will traverse along the front later Tuesday into
Wednesday, and this may bring some showers to mainly our southern
sections for mid week. Have stayed with 15-25% PoPs for now as still
plenty of time for things to change with frontal placement and/or
strength of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...All terminals should remain VFR with
lower dewpoints mixing in and winds becoming light overnight.
Some drainage winds are possible at RUT. Winds will continue to
be light on Friday, becoming northwesterly.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles